|
|


"You've got to be very careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there." Yogi Berra *THE FOLLOWING MATERIAL REPRESENTS SOME OF THE GUIDELINES OF BENJAMIN GRAHAM AS MODIFIED BY THE WEBMASTER DUE TO FEAR. Each company should have a long record of continuous dividend Payments: at least 10 years; 20 years is better. Graham: Limit purchases to 25x of 10 year average earnings, and not more than 20 times 12 month average earnings. [Webmaster: I'm much more comfortable limiting my purchases to stocks with current P/E < 15] Reevaluate your portfolio every 12 months or more frequently. Make sure that the balance sheets of your companies are still sound. Graham: Industrial company common stock book value should be 50% minimum of total capitalization, including all bank debt. [Webmaster: I'm much more comfortable with 33% or less debt/capitalization, especially during times when its difficult to get funding.] Graham: Railroad or public utility common stock book value should be at least 30% of total capitalization. [Webmaster: again, this does not seem safe in my opinion]. Prominent Company = should rank among the first quarter or first third in size within its industry group. For "enterprising investor", avoid "growth-stocks" indicated by P/E higher than 20. For the "defensive investor" avoid stocks with 25 x average earnings of the past seven years. These should be about equal in both cases. [Webmaster: I avoid these completely, except in my nano-speculator portfolio]. Graham: Large well run companies are advantageous because they have financial and personal capital to make it through bad times back to profitability and market price will respond rapidly to recovery. [Webmaster: This is for "warm-fuzzies" only since we really don't care about the market price of the stocks once we buy them, unless of course their balance sheets start looking dicey]. "Bargain" = calculated value at least 50% more than the price. Earnings stability over past decade or more (no annual deficit) required. Ideal: Large and prominent company selling well below its past average price and its past average price/earnings multiplier. [Webmaster: and in compliance with other requirements as well.] Defensive Investor Always Avoids: foreign bonds, ordinary preferred stocks, secondary common stocks, IPO's. Enterprising Investor only buys these when selling price is less than 2/3 of real value. High-grade bonds with maturity of seven years or are safe due to lack of price changes. Avoid issues selling at prices more than 33% of tangible asset value. Sound investment require combination of good asset price, good P/E, good balance sheet and reasonable evidence that this will continue indefinitely. Standards of before tax earnings vs. fixed charges for: Bonds: Utility > 4x of 7 year avg earnings or 3x poorest year Rail > 5x of 7 year avg earnings or 4x poorest year Industrial > 7x of 7 year avg earnings or 4x poorest year Retail > 5x of 7 year avg earnings or 4x poorest year Preferred Stocks (NOT of: utilities, financials, or RE): The same minimum figures but add 2x preferred dividends Current Dividend Rate: Standard dividend policy= distribution of about two-thirds of their average earnings. Typical secondary company with expected average earnings of $3 and an expected dividend of $2 may be valued at either 12 times its earnings or 18 times its dividend, to yield a value of 36 in both cases. Graham: Big companies only: > $100 million of annual sales for an industrial company and, > $50 million of total assets for a public utility. [Webmaster: This will be a lot higher since Graham said this in the 1970's.] Strong Balance Sheet: Industrial companies = current assets > 2x current liabilities (two-to-one current ratio). Long-term debt should not exceed the net current assets (or "working capital"). For public utilities the debt should not exceed twice the stock equity (at book value). [Webmaster: I'm still confused about this as I don't see this criteria often met.] Earnings Growth: > 33% increase in EPS in past 10 years based on 3 year averages. P/E < 15x past 3 years EPS. P/B < 1.5x but P/E < 15 = higher P/B such that P/E * P/B < 22.5 (especially good for defensive investors) Portfolio E/P> high-grade bond rate. [Webmaster: I've omitted much of the criteria for the "enterprising investor" as it is a less stringent criteria of the "defensive investor's" and does not seem as safe.] ROIC = how efficiently a company has used the retained shareholders' money; 10% is good; 6% or 7% ok if the company has good brands, good management, and temporarily out of favor. "Only The Paranoid Survive!" Grove |